MENA Newswire News Desk: OPEC has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024, reducing the previous estimate by 106,000 barrels per day (b/d). The organization’s latest report now projects a year-on-year increase of 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d), down from earlier assessments. According to OPEC’s October report, total global oil demand is expected to reach 105.6 mb/d by the fourth quarter of 2024.
For the entire year, demand is anticipated to average 104.1 mb/d, driven by robust demand in sectors like air travel and road transportation, including trucking. Additionally, industrial, construction, and agricultural activities, especially in non-OECD countries, are expected to contribute significantly to the growth. The report highlighted that oil demand in the Middle East is forecasted to expand by an average of 265,000 b/d year-on-year during the fourth quarter of 2024.
Overall, for the entire year, Middle Eastern oil demand is expected to grow by 200,000 b/d, reaching an average of 8.8 mb/d. Strong economic performance in the region, supported by healthy GDP growth forecasts for 2025, is anticipated to sustain this upward trend. Looking ahead to 2025, the demand for gasoline, transportation diesel, and jet/kerosene is expected to drive regional growth, with oil consumption projected to increase by 249,000 b/d in the first quarter.
By the end of 2025, the Middle East’s oil demand is expected to average 9.1 mb/d, marking a significant year-on-year growth. The report also pointed to refinery capacity expansions in non-OECD countries, particularly in China and the Middle East, as key contributors to the rising demand. However, global uncertainties, including broader economic developments, could impact these projections. OPEC stressed that these forecasts remain subject to potential revisions depending on evolving global economic conditions.
For 2025, OPEC has also downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast by 102,000 b/d in some sub-regions of the non-OECD. Despite this adjustment, global oil demand is expected to rise by approximately 1.6 mb/d year-on-year, reaching an average of 105.8 mb/d for the year. In terms of regional contributions, OECD countries are expected to see a modest increase in oil demand, with a year-on-year growth of 100,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the non-OECD region is projected to lead the global increase with a year-on-year growth of 1.5 mb/d, driven by strong demand across key sectors.